Monday, December 12, 2011

Don't Believe all The Economic Headlines: CIBC


Here's a report from Propertywire magazine that |I felt should be copied word for word. If you have any questions contact me .
A new report from CIBC Economics suggests that Canadians would be well advised to look at the full picture when reflecting on the housing industry. Simply, don’t be put off by the alarming headlines, but know the whole story- and all the details.
CIBC said in a report, “That is certainly the case when it comes to the highly debated ascent in household debt and the health of the Canadian residential real estate market. In both cases, any statement based on headline figures or average numbers can be hugely misleading. The truth is buried in the details—and there the picture is still not pretty, but much less alarming.”
While household debt levels in the country are high, they suggest they are not alarming. Data has put debt-to-income ratio at around 150%. CIBC says though, that that figure cannot be taken at face value. It has to be put in greater context- of the whole economy, saying that it is not the level of debt that is as important as the fact that the accumulation of debt has greatly decelerated. Canadians seem to be changing their attitudes towards debt, and are adopting appropriate behaviours to that end.
Like RE/MAX earlier this week, CIBC says that the stellar performance of the Canadian Housing market is a bit of a puzzler, when conventional wisdom and economic factors suggest that it should be taking a greater hit than it has. “The average price of a house has risen by 28% since reaching its recent cyclical low in January 2009, and it is now close to 50% above the level seen before the recession.”
What CIBC does underscore, is the dangers of identifying the national average price, as actually reflecting the average price in the nation. They centre on areas like Toronto and Vancouver, where high prices succeeded in skewing the national average. They remind Canadians that they housing market is made up of separate pieces, each with unique challenges and conditions. “Prices in the Canadian market and its sub-segments are higher than what can be explained by factors such as income growth, rent, and household formation.”

CIBC answers doomsday analysts who say that the market is overvalued, and set to crash, because there exist fundamentals to keep it afloat: “The fact that prices are overvalued today does not necessarily mean that they will crash tomorrow. After all, a violent market correction needs a trigger such as the sub-prime crisis, which ignited the US real estate meltdown, and/or abnormally high interest rates, as was the case during the 1991 property crash in Canada.”

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